01:30 pm, August 19, 2021
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National Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Korea
Dynamical modeling of tick population growth and tick-borne disease transmission with climate projection
In order to predict the risk of tick-borne disease infection, we need to know the prevalence ticks as well as the transmission risks of pathogens among ticks and hosts. In the first part of this talk, I introduce a tick-borne disease transmission dynamics among ticks with multiple development stages, animal hosts and humans, with the stochastic observation process of human tick-borne disease reporting. We then use the developed model to project TBEV transmission risk by integrating climate projection.
In the second part of the talk, we will look at the dynamical models that captures the growth of the tick populations, from the model that is designed to understand the seasonal prevalence of ticks to the model showing that multi-stages of ticks may complicate the control strategy of ticks.